On April 24th, Governor Gretchen Whitmer extended the stay at home order for Michigan residents until May 15th. Furthermore, restrictions on landscaping companies, plant nurseries, and etc. were lifted. However, many believe that her actions were way too extreme and prolonged, especially with the amount of cases dropping. This can be seen by the mass protests where many state guidelines for social distancing are broken. Thus, how realistic is it for a complete opening of Michigan on May 15th?
One important thing to look at is how Michiganders is reacting to the extended stay at home order. According to unacast's Covid-19 toolkit, who grade each state on 3 different criteria, Michigan went from a B to a D. This grade comes from: a C for reduction in traffic (40-55% reduction), an F for the reduction of non-essential travel (55% reduction), and a D in decrease of encounters (40-74% reduction). On a county to county basis, most of the upper peninsula has an average of B while the lower peninsula is mostly comprised of Ds. This can be seen below and on the unacast site. This means that as time has went on, Michiganders are not listening to the experts which might be one of the reasons why there is a statewide plateau in cases which will be discussed next.
The next thing that is important to acknowledge is the number of daily cases in Michigan. As you can see from the graph below, Michigan has definitely hit its peak was on a downwards trend. Although the downwards trend is going up and down, most epidemiologists in the state are saying Michigan has hit a plateau. This is definitely not the best news because a plateau could go on for several more weeks and the governor would be forced to extend the stay at home order. Furthermore, most experts are also saying there are only two options for a state to re-open in a completely safe manner: A) a vaccine/drug has been developed or B) the cases are in the double digits for the entire state. Currently, since March 21st, Michigan has never gone in the double digits but with the downward trend, one can hope it is coming soon. Currently, the cases sit at a little above 40,000. With all the protests going on and the social distancing guidelines being broken, I do not expect this number to hit double digits any time soon by May 15th.
So, the question comes again, will the state be ready to completely reopen by May 15th. Most political leaders and health experts believe that big parts of Michigan will be ready to reopen, especially the upper peninsula and the northern Michigan. However, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, Michigan will need to be conducting 15,000 tests a day in order to be able to completely reopen. Right now, the maximum capacity is at 11,500 (with only 8,155 tests being done due to resource limitations) so there is still much more work to be done. Furthermore, counties such as Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb should expect an extended stay-at-home order because models are showing that raising restrictions will not be a safe viable option until the end of May. At the end, the chances for a complete re-opening on Michigan (in a safe manner) are slim. Many counties up north and on the west side of Michigan might reopen but the complete state re-opening might be a foolish idea at this point but who knows what the future might hold. Therefore, we must all do our part and stay in doors until the data suggests it is safe. What are your thoughts on the matter? Is the governor doing too much? How do you suggest reopening the country? Stay hopeful and pray for the best.
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